The Netbook Feedback Loop

Netbooks have certainly seen their unfair share of hype lately:

• The Trifecta of Netbooks, Wifi, and SaaS
• Toshiba Introduces a Netbook
• 'Android' Eee PC: The un-Intel Netbook
• NVIDIA Tegra Powers Sexy New Netbooks, Provides Days of Battery Life
• Netbooks Appear To Be Driving Up Optical Disc Drive Sales
• Bye-bye Kindle, E-reader Screens Coming for Netbooks
• Netbooks, the New Species

And this is just in the last day or two. Apparently a rising tide doesn't lift all boats as Dell cans its Mini 9 Netbook.

The low pricing (less than $600) makes it especially attractive since the economy crashed last year, encouraging motivation for lower cost solutions. The low pricing is achieved through stripping down everything with the primary function remaining being Internet access. From EE Times & iSuppli, forecasts are shown to almost double from 2008 to 2009, from 13Mu to +24Mu.


As the primary function for the Netbook is Internet Access, this makes it a perfect complimentary hardware solution for all the new & growing SaaS based web applications. It becomes a feedback loop as the more netbooks are sold, the more users and demand for SaaS applications. Likewise, as people use more SaaS applications, a lightweight, low-cost netbook is an increasingly attractive option.

So, just how popular are Netbooks becoming compared to Notebooks? The below chart from DisplayBank show Netbooks plateauing out at ~19% in 2012.


Frank Fox from LowEndMac explains why the Netbook share isn't larger. To summarize: as Netbooks take share from Notebooks, Notebooks are likewise taking share from the larger Desktop market, resulting still in a net increase for notebooks.

Another aspect to gauge interest & forward looking projections is taking a look at keyword search history. Here is a comparison of Netbook vs Notebook from Google keyword tool. Note that Local criteria is all regions and territories. (If confused by the Local vs Global definition, Local is just in the last month, Global is a monthly average over the last year.)


With all the recent news headlines, it's expected that searches for Netbook would be surging, but I think this shows a much much stronger interest than what some people are forecasting. Over the course of a year, Notebook averaged ~20M searches per month, while Netbook averaged ~2.7M. Looking at the most recent month of April, shows Netbook quickly closing the gap, skyrocketing to +6M searches, with Notebook shrinking to +13M searches. You can also look at this as Netbooks hitting 31% share (6.1M/total of 19.7M).

While I personally don't yet have a Netbook, it's been something I've been thinking about quite a bit lately, any recommendations appreciated, :)!